Metaculus: forecasts instead of agreement polling
Mechanism and classification
Probability estimate and update → aggregate forecast; event resolution → evaluation. Interpret this mechanism at the stated maturity level. A launch, demonstration or reference blueprint does not establish widespread operation or commercial success.
Editorial scope
The status describes the documented stage of the model; it is not a claim of market penetration or commercial success. Provider metrics remain provider claims unless independently confirmed.
Evidence
- Source 1 · news.yale.edu ↗Publiziert / Dokument: 2016-11-02
- Source 2 · independence must be assessed separately · metaculus.com ↗Geprüft: 04.10.2026 · undatiert
Complete research dossier
The complete editorial record — including the case-specific mechanism, chronology, limitations and cross-references — is maintained in German. Use the DE switch to open the exact counterpart.
Dates and evidence scope
- Recorded event / reference date
- 2015
- Atlas first publication
- Not separately established
- Source review in this audit
- Not separately established
The editorial update date is not a claim that every source or current product feature was rechecked. Unknown dates remain open. Source publication dates are listed with the evidence above.
Structured evidence and geography register · Unclassified source roles and unassigned origin/market fields are explicitly marked.